According to the blog the Big Picture, David Rosenberg, who as of recent has been prominently featured in front of the business news cameras, is talking down the US economy and firmly states that he is in the "we're in a long term Depression" camp.
Despite one of the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus packages in the history of the nation, the US economy remains moribund and appears to be drifting into deflationary territory, with potential increases in unemployment and greater economic upheavals (i.e. known as the double-dip).
The following statistics indicate that the US economy is in very poor health and worst is foreseen.
• Wages & Salaries are still down 3.7% from the prior peak
• Corporate profits are still down 20% from the peak
• Real GDP is still down 1.3% from the peak
• Industrial production is still down 7.2% from the peak
• Employment is still down 5.5% from the peak
• Retail sales are still down 4.5% from the peak
• Manufacturing orders are still down 22.1% from the peak
• Manufacturing shipments are still down 12.5% from the peak
• Exports are still down 9.2% from the peak
• Housing starts are still down 63.5% from the peak
• New home sales are still down 68.9% from the peak
• Existing home sales are still down 41.2% from the peak
• Non-residential construction is still down 35.7% from the peak
Given that autumn is approaching it is only fitting that our fleeting summer fling with conceptions of growth should come to and end and usher in the cold harsh reality that a return to the wonder-years of high growth are gone. The great deleveraging will continue for years. The global economy will continue to limp, stagger, and depending on what happens in China, may even collapse next year.
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